The Collapse of Bashar al-Assad's Regime: A Strategic Setback for Russia
The downfall of Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria sends a stark message to Moscow: Russia's influence in the region is waning. This development marks a significant blow to Russia's geopolitical ambitions, particularly in the Middle East and Africa.
At the heart of Russia's concerns is the perception that the fall of any dictator through a popular uprising poses a direct threat to its own grip on power. The Kremlin has consistently demonstrated hostility towards revolutions, as seen in its responses to the Arab Spring and the Euromaidan uprising ¹.
Russia's involvement in Syria was intended to showcase its resurgence as a global power. However, the collapse of Assad's regime undermines this narrative and exposes the limitations of Russia's military might. The failure to preserve Assad's rule is a bitter pill for Moscow to swallow, especially given the significant economic costs of its intervention in Syria.
The estimated cost of Russia's military intervention in Syria was around $4 million per day in 2015, with costs doubling as troop deployments increased ¹. By 2020, Russia had allocated an additional $1 billion for "humanitarian" purposes in Syria. These expenditures have taken a toll on Russia's economy, which is already struggling under the weight of international sanctions.
The demise of Assad's regime is the latest in a series of setbacks for Russia's foreign policy. Moscow's inability to support Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan and its declining influence in Central Asia all point to a regional power in decline. The implications of this decline are far-reaching, with potential consequences for Russia's military bases in Syria and its relationships with other regional actors.
The collapse of Assad's regime raises questions about the future of Russia's military presence in Syria. Some reports suggest that Russia may be withdrawing its key installations, including the Khmeimim airbase and the naval facility at Tartus. Others indicate that Moscow is attempting to negotiate an agreement with Damascus's new government to secure its continued presence.
As the situation in Syria continues to unfold, one thing is clear: the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime marks a significant strategic setback for Russia. The implications of this development will be closely watched by regional observers and will likely have far-reaching consequences for Russia's geopolitical ambitions.
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