CNN - Ukraine's counteroffensive against Russian forces has begun, but it has yet to gain significant momentum as some optimistic observers had expected. The current operations seem to be the prelude to a more extensive act.
In the initial offensive actions, Ukraine has made modest gains in southern regions like Zaporizhzhia. However, breaking through the multi-layered Russian defenses in this area has proven challenging. The main objective for Ukraine is to target Zaporizhzhia as it would disrupt Russia's land-bridge between Crimea and eastern Donetsk, which they annexed.
Nevertheless, Ukrainian forces are also diversifying their strategies. They are attempting to weaken Russian advances near Bakhmut and exploit vulnerabilities in other parts of the eastern front. Rather than concentrating all their newly-formed brigades in one direction, the Ukrainians are pulling Russian units in different directions to assess their weaknesses and exploit divisions between battalions.
Ukrainian adviser Mykhailo Podolyak stated that their primary goal is to eliminate as many Russian draftee units as possible and increase psychological pressure on the Russian army. Simultaneously, Ukrainian units are testing various areas to identify the weakest points.
To achieve this, Ukraine has launched fresh assault operations around Bakhmut to force the Russians to deploy additional units for defense. Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander of the Ukrainian Land Forces, acknowledged that the Russians are moving their most combat-ready units in the direction of Bakhmut.
Surprisingly, Ukrainian forces have also shown progress near Donetsk, a historically stagnant front line, and further south around the Vuhledar front, which has seen limited movement. The flexibility to choose the areas of attack provides an advantage to Ukraine, while Russia faces the challenge of defending a sprawling front line spanning nearly 1,000 kilometers (621 miles), with some units already weakened.
However, Ukraine's task remains formidable, particularly in the south, where they face heavily fortified defensive positions and lack air superiority. The Russians have had ample time to strengthen their defenses in this region, making it unlikely for Ukraine to replicate the lightning advances witnessed in Kharkiv last fall.
The Institute for the Study of War warns against premature conclusions, noting that Ukraine has not fully deployed its counteroffensive forces, and Russian defenses are not uniformly strong across all sectors of the front line.
Matthew Schmidt, an associate professor of national security, emphasizes that many questions remain unanswered at this early stage. Are the Russians strategically reacting? Are they moving troops and supplies to the main focus of the fighting? What are the remaining Ukrainian forces doing? Are the Russians unsure of where they will be deployed?
The Ukrainians hope that Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, who now commands forces in Ukraine, will make strategic mistakes. Gerasimov has a history of errors, including the ill-conceived initial assault in February 2022.
So far, the Russian defense strategy in the south has been relatively successful. Ukrainian forces have suffered losses, with mine-clearing tanks and other armor falling victim to artillery and aerial attacks during their attempts to break through. Open-source videos indicate a high usage of anti-tank munitions, causing significant casualties among Ukrainian front-line units.
The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War explains that the Russian forces follow a two-tiered approach: the first echelon repels or slows down attacking forces, while the second echelon launches counterattacks in the event of enemy breakthroughs.
The role of the Russian air force may become critical in the coming weeks, especially if they effectively employ glide bombs and find ways to counter Ukrainian air defense measures. Russian air strikes and artillery have already hampered Ukrainian advances, and the lack of aerial support is a challenge for Ukraine.
Adaptation has been necessary for Ukrainian units in the face of Russian air strikes and artillery. They often divide into smaller groups to minimize detection.
Matthew Schmidt highlights the importance of Ukrainian troops learning from their experiences. Their ability to breach Russian lines successfully and pass on their knowledge to the next wave of the offensive is crucial. The Ukrainian commander expresses confidence in their progress, stating that they are advancing, displacing the enemy from positions, albeit not as rapidly as desired.
The Ukrainian forces aim to create panic among the Russians and force them to deploy reserves in multiple directions, thereby destabilizing their defense.
However, it is still early in the counteroffensive, and the situation remains fluid. Both sides maintain a high level of secrecy, and real-time information about the evolving situation is limited. The effectiveness of Russian electronic warfare tactics and Ukrainian targeting of rear positions, such as command centers and supply depots, will play a significant role in shaping the conflict. The decisions and survival of mid- and senior-level officers on both sides will also impact the outcome.
Foreign policy experts Richard Haas and Charles Kupchan suggest that Ukraine may consider a negotiated settlement after the offensive, recognizing the constraints on their manpower and assistance from abroad. While some view a stunning blow to the Kremlin, including regaining Crimea, as necessary, others perceive it as a dangerous fantasy. The final outcome of the conflict and its path will depend on the developments in the coming weeks.
The ongoing counteroffensive by Ukraine against Russian forces is underway, but its progress has been modest so far. Ukraine is employing diverse strategies to weaken Russian advances, while Russia faces the challenge of defending a long front line. The situation remains unpredictable, and the success of the counteroffensive will depend on various factors, including Ukrainian adaptation, Russian air support, and the effectiveness of targeting rear positions. The ultimate outcome and potential for a negotiated settlement remain uncertain.
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