Ukraine live briefing: Revolt calls into question Putin’s grip on power and Wagner Group’s future

Questions remain about the whereabouts of Putin and Prigozhin — neither of whom has been seen in public since the episode came to a close — and about the future of Prigozhin’s Wagner Group mercenaries.

Here’s the latest on the war and its ripple effects across the globe.

Wagner Group fallout

• Russia’s Defense Ministry published a video Monday claiming to show Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu inspecting a command post in Ukraine. It was not immediately clear when or where the footage was recorded. Prigozhin has long accused Shoigu of fumbling Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and called for his ouster. Shoigu, one of the targets of Wagner’s rebellion, was nowhere to be seen over the weekend.
• The brief rebellion in Russia “raises profound questions” about the country’s stability,Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Blinken and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attributed the revolt, at least in part, to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. “The longer Russian aggression lasts, the more degradation it causes in Russia itself,” Zelensky said Sunday.
• Western officials are questioning whether the truce will last and areconcerned that instability in Russia, a major nuclear power, could pose a risk to the United States and its allies. Under Russia’s reported agreement with Prigozhin, the Wagner Group leader and some of his forces will go to Belarus, but Western officials were unsure of the exact terms.

Global updates

• Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda has called for reinforcing the border with Belarus following a weekend of political instability in Russia that resulted in Prigozhin’s reported acceptance of exile to Belarus. “We need to tighten security of our eastern borders even more,” Nauseda said Monday at a Lithuanian State Defense Council meeting, the Interfax news agency reported.
• Germany wants to permanently station about 4,000 soldiers in Lithuania to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced Monday. “It is about “defending our common freedom,” he said, according to German media.
• China has downplayed Russia’s political instability, branding the recent rebellion as “internal affairs” in Moscow. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning made the comment when asked if recent events could weaken Putin. She said Beijing supports Moscow in “maintaining national stability and achieving development and prosperity.”
• Australia announced a new assistance package to Ukraine that includes 70 military vehicles and ammunition. The package, worth 110 million Australian dollars, or about $75 million, “demonstrates that Ukraine can count on Australia,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said in a statement. It also includes money for a U.N. humanitarian fund for civilians in Ukraine.

From our correspondents

Mercenary boss warned of revolution in Russia, but his own was short-lived: Before Prigozhin sent his army marching on Moscow in an act of defiance over the weekend, he told Russians that for the country to stand a chance of winning its war in Ukraine, it must become a “North Korea-style” state with the death penalty in force.

Now, following the short-lived rebellion, Prigozhin has reportedly agreed to go into exile in Belarus, a dictatorship even more isolated than Russia and often referred to as the North Korea of Europe, Mary Ilyushina reports.

On some levels, Prigozhin’s most brazen gambit clearly failed — his rebellion ended without the ouster of his archenemies, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the overall commander of the war in Ukraine. But he did not completely lose his private mercenary army, and he appeared to win some acclaim in Russia: After the news of his deal with Putin was announced, he got a celebrity send-off as he left the city of Rostov-on-Don, with many locals applauding and rushing to take selfies.