While the IMF forecasts an increased likelihood of a soft landing for the global economy, global growth will likely remain below the historic average, at around 2%-3% in 2024. Tighter credit conditions are putting upward pressure on debt servicing costs and impacting corporate and consumer spending. Many governments, faced with increasing debts and rising servicing costs, will be forced to cut spending. This will only increase political stability and unrest risks. Moreover, the global economic outlook will be impacted by other geopolitical trends, including regional conflicts, sanctions and more protectionist trade policies.
Global Economic Resilience Challenged: Navigating Uncertainties and Risks
Introduction
• Define economic resilience and its importance in the face of global uncertainties.
• Overview of current challenges and factors impacting global economic stability.
1. Economic Shocks and Vulnerabilities
• Pandemic Aftermath:
• Impact of COVID-19 on global economies and recovery efforts.
• Long-term implications for sectors such as tourism, hospitality, and supply chains.
• Trade Disruptions:
• Supply chain disruptions and trade tensions among major economies.
• Effects of protectionist measures and tariffs on global trade flows.
2. Financial Market Volatility
• Stock Market Fluctuations:
• Analysis of market volatility and investor confidence.
• Role of fiscal and monetary policies in stabilizing financial markets.
• Debt Burdens:
• Rising levels of public and corporate debt globally.
• Challenges in debt management and fiscal sustainability.
3. Geopolitical Risks
• Geopolitical Tensions:
• Impact of geopolitical conflicts on global economic stability.
• Regional disputes and their implications for international trade and investment.
• Sanctions and Trade Policies:
• Economic repercussions of sanctions imposed by major powers.
• Responses from affected countries and regions.
4. Sectoral Challenges
• Energy Prices and Sustainability:
• Fluctuations in oil prices and their impact on energy-dependent economies.
• Transition towards renewable energy and its economic implications.
• Technology and Innovation:
• Disruptions caused by technological advancements and digital transformations.
• Economic opportunities and challenges in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
5. Regional Perspectives
• Developed Economies:
• Economic recovery strategies and resilience measures.
• Impact of demographic shifts and aging populations on economic resilience.
• Emerging Markets:
• Vulnerabilities of emerging markets to external shocks and financial instability.
• Efforts towards diversification and economic reforms.
6. Socioeconomic Impacts
• Income Inequality:
• Widening income gaps exacerbated by economic crises.
• Policies addressing social inequality and inclusive growth.
• Employment Trends:
• Job market challenges and shifts in workforce dynamics.
• Impact of automation and digitalization on employment sectors.
7. Policy Responses and Resilience Strategies
• Fiscal Stimulus Packages:
• Effectiveness of government interventions in supporting economic recovery.
• Debate over austerity measures versus expansionary fiscal policies.
• International Cooperation:
• Role of global organizations (IMF, World Bank) in promoting economic resilience.
• Collaborative efforts in addressing global challenges such as climate change and pandemics.
8. Future Outlook
• Emerging Risks:
• Forecasting future economic risks and vulnerabilities.
• Opportunities for innovation and sustainable development.
9. Conclusion
• Summary of the complex challenges facing global economic resilience.
• Call to action: the need for coordinated efforts and resilient strategies to navigate uncertainties and build a sustainable global economy.
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