That's due to their lack of transfer market spending this summer, as the Magpies signed just five players - most of whom will not crack Eddie Howe's first team. The permanent £28million move for Lewis Hall, whose loan last season came with a performance-related obligation to buy, could be considered their marquee signing this window.
Further deals for deputising goalkeepers Odysseas Vlachodimos and John Ruddy weren't especially eye-catching, and neither were the additions of Lloyd Kelly to their defence and youngster William Osula up front.
A failed big-money move for England and Crystal Palace star Marc Guehi consumed most of their window, and Shearer believes that by not bolstering their first team, they may struggle to reach the Champions League once again without some serious luck.
"I still think Newcastle could get into the top four, as I predicted at the start of the season, but I think because of the lack of signings, we'll need so much luck," Shearer told Betfair. "If we get the luck then perhaps, we could do it again, but if we don't then I don't see us getting into the top four."
Howe's side slumped to a seventh-placed finish last season after finishing in a Champions League spot the year prior, missing out on European football altogether after eighth-placed Manchester United won the FA Cup.
They have managed to keep their stars, such as Anthony Gordon and Alexander Isak, who at one point looked as though they might leave St. James's Park, but Shearer still worries a lack of recruitment could see them bested by their top-four challenging rivals.
The former England striker also praised Aston Villa and Brighton for their start to the campaign - especially the Seagulls, considering their 2-1 victory over Manchester United and gutsy 1-1 draw away at Arsenal.
Chelsea and United, however, didn't receive such glowing reviews from the 54-year-old, who has been in hot water with Red Devils boss Erik ten Hag over comments he made regarding Marcus Rashford's form.
"I've been impressed with Aston Villa and the way they've started - I know they were beaten by Arsenal, but they were unlucky that day," Shearer continued. "They look really good, but they've got Champions League football as well to come.
"Man United haven't impressed me at all. I think I had them to finish fifth but I wouldn't change anything with them moving higher at the moment, and Chelsea are still a spin of a coin. I had them in ninth at the start of the season.
"So I wouldn't change too much in what I've said from what I've seen in the first few games of the season. Brighton have been impressive in their first three games. Fabian Hürzeler has had a really positive start so they are a team to watch."
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