The 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck and neck in the polls. As of the latest surveys, Harris and Trump are tied, with 49% of registered voters saying they would vote for Harris if the election were held today, and an identical share saying they would back Trump.
[The Economy: A Key Issue]
The economy is a top concern for voters, with 55% of voters saying they are very or somewhat confident in Trump to make good decisions about economic policy, compared with 45% who say that about Harris ¹. However, Harris holds sizable leads over Trump on several personal traits and characteristics, including being a good role model, down-to-earth, and honest.
[Demographic Divide]
The candidates' support bases reflect familiar demographic divides. Trump holds a lead among White voters (56% to 42%), while Harris maintains large advantages with Black voters (84% to 13%) and Asian voters (61% to 37%) ¹. Latino voters, who were evenly divided between Biden and Trump in July, now favor Harris, 57% to 39%.
[The Impact of Candidate Characteristics]
Voters have mixed views on the impact of Harris' gender and race and ethnicity on her candidacy. More say the fact that Harris is a woman and that she is Black and Asian will help her than hurt her with voters this fall ¹. However, nearly half of voters say Trump's age will hurt his candidacy.
[Uncertainty and Concerns]
Despite the polls, most voters (80%) say it's not yet clear who will win the election. Additionally, concerns over political violence are rising, with 66% of voters saying the threat of violence against political leaders and their families is a major problem in the country.
[Looking Ahead]
As the election draws near, voters will be watching closely to see how Harris and Trump address the issues that matter most to them. Will Harris' strengths on personal traits and characteristics be enough to overcome Trump's economic advantages? Or will Trump's base rally behind him once again? One thing is certain – this election will be one for the history books.
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