Harris heads into Election Day in a strong but uncertain position, while Trump’s resilient support underscores the ongoing divisions within the U.S.
In the final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll before the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by four percentage points among likely voters nationwide. This last minute poll shows Harris at 51% support compared to Trump’s 47%, just outside the poll's 3.5% margin of error, indicating a slight edge for Harris but one that remains close enough for potential shifts. The poll highlights key divisions and dynamics in what has become one of the most unusual election cycles in recent memory.
One noteworthy finding from the poll is the role of independent voters. While Harris holds a lead overall, Trump has a slight advantage among independents, leading Harris by five points in this group. Given the narrow overall gap, these undecided or swing voters could prove pivotal in deciding the outcome of the election, especially in crucial battleground states. Marist Institute's director, Lee Miringoff, remarked on the precariousness of the situation, noting that Harris has a slim but decisive lead in the popular vote. According to Miringoff, “It’s hers to lose,” underscoring the delicate balance of the race.
The 2024 campaign has been marked by historic events that have shaped the race in unpredictable ways. Notably, President Joe Biden, the presumed Democratic nominee, withdrew from the race unexpectedly less than four months before Election Day, placing Harris in the spotlight. This has given her a unique position as the first woman of color to head a major party’s ticket, a milestone that could influence voter turnout and sentiment. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign has faced its own turmoil. He has survived two assassination attempts and stands convicted on 34 felony counts, an unprecedented set of circumstances for a presidential candidate. Despite these challenges, Trump maintains significant support, demonstrating the resilience of his base and the deep polarization of the American electorate.
The poll also reveals differences in early and late voting patterns. Among those who have already cast their ballots, Harris holds a solid lead, 56% to Trump’s 42%. This may indicate strong enthusiasm among her supporters who are more likely to vote early. However, among those who have yet to vote, Trump holds the advantage, with 53% of these likely voters saying they plan to support him, compared to 45% for Harris. This divergence between early and late voters adds another layer of uncertainty to the race, making Election Day turnout critical for both campaigns.
As the poll points out, the 2024 voter landscape closely resembles that of the 2020 election. In that race, Biden won the popular vote by a similar margin, with 51% compared to Trump’s 47%. According to Miringoff, this close resemblance to the 2020 electorate highlights how, despite an extraordinary election cycle, the results may ultimately reflect the same divided political landscape as four years ago. The big question remains whether this popular vote split will translate to an Electoral College outcome that once again mirrors the popular vote.
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