The New Patriotic Party (NPP) may be facing new hurdles in the Western Region, which, alongside Greater Accra, is shaping up as a potential battleground for the ruling party in Ghana’s upcoming December 2024 elections. Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, recently highlighted that the Western Region could become the NPP’s "second Waterloo," referencing its significance as a key region that could ultimately decide the outcome of the elections.
According to the latest polling data, voter support in these regions appears to be shifting against the NPP, a trend that could signal a broader change in the national political landscape. If these shifts continue, the NPP could face serious repercussions in the December polls, challenging the party’s historical dominance in areas traditionally seen as their strongholds. This development underscores a critical shift in voter sentiment that, if it persists, could mark a new era in Ghanaian politics.
Dankwah pointed to recent data from the Electoral Commission, which shows that President Nana Akufo-Addo won around 66% of the votes in Western Region constituencies like Effia, Kwesimintsim, Essikado-Ketan, Takoradi, and Sekondi during the 2020 elections. Former President John Mahama, the main opposition candidate, received just 32% of the vote in those areas at the time. However, this year’s polling data tells a different story, with Mahama now holding a lead of nearly 52% in the same NPP strongholds.
This shift is significant, as it reflects a growing discontent among voters in the Western Region. Dankwah further noted that support for Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the NPP's current flagbearer, is at approximately 37%, down from the levels of support seen for Akufo-Addo in the 2020 elections. Other potential candidates, such as Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako, are polling at about 6% and 4%, respectively.
One of the most striking aspects of the data is that Mahama has gained nearly 20 percentage points in the Western Region compared to his performance in 2020, suggesting that his appeal is growing in constituencies that once leaned heavily toward the NPP. Meanwhile, Bawumia’s support is reportedly down by 29 percentage points from where Akufo-Addo stood in the last election, hinting at a major shift in favorability within the ruling party’s traditional voter base.
Dankwah described this election cycle as unprecedented, noting that Ghana’s political climate going into the 2024 elections is anything but predictable. "This is not a normal election cycle," he remarked, emphasizing the volatility of the current political environment. According to Dankwah, the shifts in voter preferences are creating an electoral landscape where historical trends may not hold, leading to new alignments and uncertainties that could profoundly impact the outcome.
He further cautioned political analysts against relying too heavily on past voting patterns, asserting that "any historical trend data under your pillow may not trend." This remark underlines the unpredictability of the 2024 elections, where traditional voting behaviors may be upended, and fresh alignments could emerge.
Dankwah also spoke about the potential for a landslide outcome in the December elections if the current trends continue. He expressed strong confidence in the accuracy of Global InfoAnalytics' data, despite skepticism from some quarters. "We may be the only ones saying this, but we believe firmly in our findings," he said, encouraging open discussion and debate on the potential implications of these findings.
Nevertheless, he acknowledged that other analysts may interpret the data differently, as is natural in a democratic process. Dankwah invited differing perspectives, noting that a diversity of analyses helps foster meaningful conversation on what lies ahead for Ghana’s political future.
Further analysis by Global InfoAnalytics indicates that dissatisfaction with the president’s job performance is particularly high in several key constituencies within the Western Region. In Effia Nkwanta, for instance, recent polls show that 63% of voters disapprove of the president’s performance. These disapproval ratings are even higher in Kwesimintsim (83%), Effia (80%), and Takoradi (63%). In Sekondi, the disapproval rate sits at 32%, though an additional 17% of voters remain undecided.
Dankwah highlighted that these undecided voters in areas like Essikado-Ketan (16%) and Sekondi (17%) could have a significant impact on the election outcome. If these voters lean toward either candidate on election day, they could either cement a victory or introduce unexpected challenges for the NPP in these critical constituencies.
The data also reveals concerning trends of voter apathy in some parts of the Western Region. For instance, Kwesimintsim has recorded a high level of voter apathy, with approximately 42% of eligible voters indicating that they do not intend to participate in the 2024 elections. In contrast, Takoradi shows a lower level of apathy, with just 8% of voters expressing an intention to abstain. According to Dankwah, this variation may reflect differing levels of political engagement and satisfaction within these communities, which could ultimately influence overall turnout and election results in the region.
This decline in political engagement in certain constituencies may be a sign of dissatisfaction with the current political landscape, as well as frustration with unmet expectations. If significant numbers of eligible voters choose not to participate, it could create an unexpected variable that influences the election’s final outcome. On the other hand, a highly engaged voter base in areas like Takoradi could mean stronger support for candidates who can capture their attention and inspire their votes.
In sum, the data coming out of the Western Region paints a picture of a shifting political landscape, where traditional NPP strongholds may no longer be secure. As voter sentiment continues to evolve, and with less than a month remaining before the December election, both major parties will likely focus on appealing to undecided voters and addressing the rising levels of dissatisfaction and apathy that could sway the election.
These dynamics underscore the growing unpredictability of the 2024 elections, where voter preferences appear to be less predictable than ever before. As the December polls draw closer, all eyes will be on regions like the Western Region and Greater Accra, where the final vote counts may ultimately determine Ghana’s political direction for the coming years.
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