Ukraine and US Relations Hang in the Balance as Trump's Foreign Policy Plans Remain Unclear
As Donald Trump prepares to take office for a second term, Ukraine is holding its breath, waiting to see how the new administration's foreign policy will impact the ongoing conflict with Russia. A meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris has been deemed "possible" by a Ukrainian official, but the details of such a meeting remain scarce ¹.
The relationship between Ukraine and the US has been a crucial factor in the country's ability to resist Russian aggression. Western financial and military assistance has been vital in helping Ukraine to defend itself against almost three years of Russian aggression. However, Trump's policies on the war in Ukraine could both help and hinder Kyiv's fight.
One of the key factors that will determine the trajectory of the conflict is the level of Western support for Ukraine. Trump's team has indicated that military aid to Ukraine will continue if Kyiv is willing to start negotiations with Russia. However, this could also be seen as a sign of weakness, and could embolden Russia to continue its aggressive actions.
Analysts have identified four possible scenarios for Ukraine under Trump's presidency. These scenarios are not intended to be predictions, but rather thought exercises to facilitate planning and coordination among Ukraine's European partners.
- _Scenario One: A "Freeze" of the Conflict_ - This scenario would involve a temporary cessation of hostilities, but would not address the underlying issues driving the conflict. This scenario seems unlikely in the near term, but could become more plausible if Trump is able to convince Putin and Zelensky to accept a truce.
- _Scenario Two: A Continued "War of Attrition"_ - This scenario would involve a continuation of the current conflict, with fighting of variable intensity. This scenario would require the Russian economy to be strong enough to continue to support military operations, Western military aid to Ukraine remaining substantial, and only partial success of Russia's subversive activities against the West.
Scenario Three: Ukrainian "Victory" in One to Three Years_ - This scenario would require effective enforcement of sanctions and a weakened Russian economy. It would also require Ukraine's Western partners to increase their military aid, as well as the minimization of Russian influence in Western countries and alliances.
- _Scenario Four: Russian "Victory"_ - This scenario would involve Russia achieving its goals in Ukraine, either partially or fully. This would have significant implications for European security and the global security architecture.
As the situation in Ukraine continues to unfold, Europeans must determine their own goals when supporting Ukraine in the second Trump era. They need to prepare for how their American ally will develop his own approach to Ukraine, how US policies will impact the course of the war, and the scenarios these could lead to.
Europeans must urgently formulate a common approach and actively seek alignment of views on NATO, European, and global security between the two sides of the north Atlantic. This includes increased defense spending, much closer coordination of the development of European defense capabilities, and a willingness to compensate for any reduction or delay in US military aid to Ukraine.
Ultimately, the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine will depend on a range of factors, including the level of Western support, the strength of the Russian economy, and the effectiveness of Russia's subversive activities against the West. As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is clear: the relationship between Ukraine and the US will be crucial in determining the outcome of the conflict.
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