Steve Rosenberg: Fall of Assad Would Be a Major Blow to Russia’s Prestige
The possibility of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime falling presents not only a seismic shift for Syria but also a significant challenge to Russia’s standing on the global stage. As a close ally and protector of Assad, Russia has heavily invested in ensuring his survival, making any threat to his rule a direct test of Moscow’s influence in the Middle East.
Russia’s High-Stakes Investment in Assad
Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war, Russia has been a steadfast supporter of Assad, providing military, political, and economic assistance to keep his regime afloat. In 2015, Moscow’s military intervention was pivotal in turning the tide of the war in Assad’s favor. Russian airstrikes, ground support, and arms supplies bolstered Syrian government forces, enabling them to reclaim large swaths of territory from opposition groups and extremist factions.
For Russia, Syria is not just an ally but a strategic linchpin in the region. The Tartus naval base, Russia’s sole Mediterranean outpost, and the Khmeimim airbase underscore the importance of maintaining influence in Syria for power projection. Assad’s fall would therefore deal a significant blow to these strategic advantages.
A Test of Russian Prestige
Steve Rosenberg, a seasoned analyst of Russian politics, argues that Assad’s ousting would strike at the heart of Russia’s international image. Since President Vladimir Putin's intervention in Syria, the Kremlin has framed itself as a dominant global power capable of reshaping conflicts in its favor. Assad’s survival has been touted as evidence of Russia’s reliability as an ally and its ability to challenge Western influence.
If Assad were to fall, it would raise questions about the durability of Russian-backed regimes and Moscow’s capacity to safeguard its allies. Such a development could embolden opposition forces in other regions where Russia holds sway, from Eastern Europe to Central Asia.
What’s Next for Russia?
While Russia’s immediate reaction to any instability in Syria is likely to be one of increased involvement, the long-term implications could force Moscow to reassess its foreign policy strategies. The Kremlin could face a dilemma: double down on military support to salvage its influence or pivot toward diplomacy and compromise to protect its remaining interests.
The Wider Regional Impact
The fall of Assad would also disrupt the fragile balance of power in the Middle East. Iran, another key supporter of the Assad regime, would face setbacks, while Turkey and Western powers might see opportunities to assert greater influence. For Russia, this dynamic creates new challenges in managing its regional alliances and maintaining its status as a power broker.
A Moment of Reckoning
As Steve Rosenberg highlights, the potential fall of Assad serves as a litmus test for Russia’s global ambitions. The outcome of the ongoing turbulence in Syria will reveal whether Moscow can adapt to shifting geopolitical landscapes or whether it will be forced to retreat from its hard-earned position of influence in the Middle East.
For now, all eyes remain on Syria, where the stakes are as high for Russia as they are for Assad himself.
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