As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office, he faces a complex geopolitical landscape, particularly with regards to US-Iran relations. Iran's nuclear program has reached a critical juncture, and Trump must navigate this delicate balance of power to prevent a catastrophic conflict.
Iran's nuclear program has made significant strides since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was negotiated in 2015. The country has gained new nuclear knowledge, expanded its uranium enrichment capabilities, and developed advanced centrifuges ¹. These advances have brought Iran to the threshold of nuclear weapons, posing a serious proliferation challenge to the Trump administration.
Iran's nuclear doctrine has also undergone a significant shift. Iranian policymakers are now openly discussing the possibility of rethinking Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei's fatwa prohibiting nuclear weapons if necessary for national security ¹. This shift in doctrine appears designed to leverage Iran's status as a nuclear threshold state, threatening to weaponize its nuclear program to prevent further attacks.
Despite the complexities, there is still a path to a deal. The Trump administration should focus on a limited agreement that addresses Iran's most proliferation-sensitive activities and increases monitoring. This could include:
- *Intrusive Monitoring*: Restoring access to sites that support Iran's nuclear program but do not contain nuclear material.
- *Enrichment Limits*: Capping Iran's highly-enriched uranium stockpiles and limiting further enrichment to 5 percent.
- *Weapons-Related Activity Limits*: Prohibiting certain weaponization-related activities, such as the production of uranium metal and explosive testing.
In exchange for these nuclear restrictions, the United States could offer meaningful sanctions relief, including releasing frozen Iranian assets and providing waivers for Iranian oil sales ¹.
The Trump administration must carefully balance its approach to Iran, taking into account the country's security concerns and regional dynamics. Supporting efforts to strengthen ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and working towards an end to Israel's war in Gaza, could help de-escalate regional tensions and create an environment more conducive to negotiating a comprehensive agreement ¹.
The US-Iran relationship is at a critical juncture, and the Trump administration must navigate this delicate balance of power to prevent a catastrophic conflict. A limited agreement that addresses Iran's most proliferation-sensitive activities and increases monitoring is a crucial step towards reducing the immediacy of Iran's proliferation risk. However, a comprehensive and sustainable solution will require a more transformative approach, one that addresses the underlying security concerns and regional dynamics driving Iran's nuclear program.
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