Manchester United’s recent slump in form has led to widespread speculation about their survival in the Premier League. After suffering a 2-0 loss to Newcastle at Old Trafford, the team finds itself in 14th place, just seven points above the relegation zone. The defeat marked their third consecutive league loss and was part of a troubling trend, with only two wins from their last six Premier League matches. Manager Ruben Amorim, appointed in November, has been candid in acknowledging the possibility of relegation, admitting that it is something the club must address with its supporters. This situation has raised alarms, especially since United’s current position at the turn of the year is the lowest they’ve been since 1989, when they were 15th. However, despite the gloomy outlook, the likelihood of relegation is still minimal, according to data analysts.
Since Amorim took charge, United's form has been disappointing, accumulating just seven points from a possible 24 in the league. Their defense has been notably weak, conceding 18 goals in December alone, their highest monthly total since 1964. In fact, December marked the third time in the club's history that they have lost six games in a single month, a further sign of their struggles. Furthermore, they’ve lost three consecutive home league matches, a feat they haven’t achieved since 1979. These statistics paint a grim picture for United, as their form under Amorim is even worse than it was under his predecessor, Erik ten Hag. If this pattern continues, United may only manage to secure 39 points by the end of the season, which is far from guaranteed safety, given that 42 points were needed for survival in the 2002-03 season.
Despite the poor form, experts predict that relegation is still unlikely. According to statistical models from Opta, the probability of Manchester United finishing in the bottom three of the Premier League is extremely low, with a projected 0.1% chance of finishing 18th and a 0.0% chance of being relegated in the bottom two. In fact, the club is more likely to end the season in mid-table, with Opta’s simulations forecasting a 15.1% chance of finishing 12th, 13.9% for 13th, and 12.6% for 11th. While the team's current trajectory is far from impressive, they are still expected to finish with 50 points, well clear of relegation. Although United’s struggles are concerning, their financial strength and historical prestige make it highly improbable that they will face the drop this season.
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