UK Death Rate Reaches Record Low in 2024, But Long-Term Progress Remains Slow.
Mortality Trends in the UK.
The UK's death rate reached a historic low in 2024, according to exclusive analysis conducted for BBC News. Experts examined death certificates registered throughout the year and found that deaths per capita had returned to pre-pandemic levels, slightly below the previous record set in 2019.
Despite this positive milestone, the new figure reflects only a gradual long-term improvement, aligning with the UK's recent trend of slowing mortality gains.
The analysis was conducted by the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI) at the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.
A Decade of Stagnation in Mortality Improvements.
Stuart McDonald from the CMI noted that the UK has experienced "five years of basically flat mortality improvement," describing it as "pretty poor by historical standards."
Between 1974 and 2010, the UK's death rate steadily declined, largely due to progress in combating heart disease—achieved through smoking reduction and medical advancements. However, from 2011 onward, this downward trend slowed significantly, nearly plateauing before reversing during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The UK saw a drastic increase in deaths during the pandemic, and even after it ended, excess mortality remained high in 2022. By 2024, the rate had fallen to 989 deaths per 100,000 people, calculated using provisional weekly death registration figures across the UK.
While other countries also saw a slowdown in mortality improvements since 2011, the UK's decline has been particularly severe. Dr. Veena Raleigh, an epidemiologist at health think tank The King's Fund, warned that "our life expectancy is at the bottom of the pack of comparable countries." By contrast, Spain had already returned to pre-pandemic mortality levels by 2023.
What’s Causing the Slowdown?
Researchers attribute the stagnation in mortality improvements to several factors:
- Many of the major health gains from reducing smoking and improving heart disease treatment had already been realized, making further progress more difficult.
- Rising risk factors, such as obesity, poor diet, and low physical activity, have contributed to the slowdown.
- Social inequalities and growing pressure on the NHS have exacerbated health outcomes.
- Some experts argue that austerity-driven cuts to public services after the 2008 financial crash had a significant impact on life expectancy, though others say this is difficult to prove directly.
The leading causes of death in England and Wales continue to be dementia and Alzheimer's disease, followed by heart disease, lung disease, strokes, and lung cancer. Flu also remains a significant cause in some years.
Concerns Over Death Rates Among Young Adults.
While overall death rates primarily reflect the health of older adults—since more than three-quarters of UK deaths occur after age 70—there has been a concerning rise in mortality among younger age groups.
The CMI found "really significant differences" in death rates for those aged 20-44, with mortality in this group rising slightly even before the pandemic. McDonald highlighted that since 2011, death rates for this demographic have increased year-on-year.
For younger adults, leading causes of death differ from those in older populations. Antonino Polizzi, a researcher at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at Oxford, stated that "external and substance-related causes" are most significant, including:
- Drug overdoses
- Alcohol-related deaths
- Accidents
- Homicides
- Suicides
Polizzi noted that drug-related deaths, particularly in Scotland, have been rising, whereas other Western European countries have seen improvements in these areas.
Government Response and Health Policy Shifts.
A spokesperson for the Department of Health and Social Care acknowledged the challenges, stating:
"We inherited an NHS that was broken, and we are determined to fix it. Through our Plan for Change, we are shifting focus from sickness to prevention, targeting the drivers of ill health, and catching the biggest killers earlier."
Key initiatives include:
- Creating the first smoke-free generation.
- Restricting junk food advertising aimed at children.
- Improving early detection and treatment of cancer and cardiovascular disease.
Despite these efforts, Prof. Bryan Williams OBE, chief scientific and medical officer at the British Heart Foundation, warned that the plateau in cardiovascular disease mortality is alarming, especially given the strain on the NHS post-pandemic. He also pointed out that early deaths from heart disease have increased in England’s most deprived areas, calling for urgent government action in prevention, detection, and treatment.
Final Thoughts
While the UK’s 2024 death rate marks a record low, the broader trend reveals significant challenges. Gains in life expectancy have slowed dramatically since 2011, with persistent health inequalities and emerging risks among younger age groups. Experts stress that while improvements in mortality are always welcome, long-term solutions must address the underlying causes—rangeging from healthcare investment to lifestyle-related risk factors.
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