Pope Francis, the first Jesuit pope and the first American pope, has led the Catholic Church since 2013 with humility, reform passion, and deep commitment to the poor. As he approaches the sunset years of his papacy, already one wonders: who will take up the baton when Pope Francis disappears?
Currently 88, Francis has not been reluctant to comment on the likelihood of retirement, as was done by his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI. His health has come into question these past few years, but mentally he remains fine and his calling clear. Still, the Vatican and its one billion-plus global followers must wonder what's coming next—and who will fill his influential shoes.
A Legacy of Change
Pope Francis will likely be remembered for his emphasis on mercy over judgment, dialogue over doctrine, and inclusion over exclusion. He has reshaped the tone of the Church, addressing global issues like climate change, income inequality, migration, and even calling for greater compassion for the LGBTQ+ community. His encyclicals, particularly Laudato Si’, have resonated well beyond Catholic circles.
But his papacy has not been without controversy. Conservatives have criticized him as too liberal, and reformists believe he hasn't gone far enough, particularly on ordination for women and clergy celibacy. Nevertheless, his papacy has moved the ground and paved the way for a potentially revolutionary successor.
The Next Pope: What's at Stake
The future pope will inherit not only Francis' unfinished reforms but also a Church that is struggling to cope with a rapidly changing world. Catholicism is growing in the Global South—Africa and Asia—in contrast to declining in traditionally powerful areas like Europe and parts of the Americas. The new pope will have to contend with the shifting demographics of the Church, widespread abuse scandals, and the task of keeping together a fragmented Church ideologically.
Selection by the secretive method in the Sistine Chapel throughout the Conclave will select between the 120 or so electors who make up the college of cardinal electors. An eclectic group of cardinal electors, many directly appointed by Pope Francis himself, these electors could tip their votes to an ideologically friendly successor.
Top Contenders
While predicting papal successors is by no means certain, some have been hailed as top choices. Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Pietro Parolin is a diplomatic fixer with significant influence and a centrist orientation. Another is Philippines' Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle—young, energetic, and favored by Francis for his pastoral heart and world perspective. His Asian background also could signal a shift toward the areas where Catholicism is on the rise.
Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana is another top candidate. A strong voice on social justice and climate change action, his election would mark the first African pope in recent history—a symbol of the universal nature of the Church.
Conservatives would likely rally around cardinals like Raymond Burke or Robert Sarah, but their election seems less likely under today's College of Cardinals make-up as well.
Continuity or Change?
The choice of the next pope will be seen as either a continuation of Francis' vision or a return to a more traditional form of leadership. But whichever is chosen, he will have to contend with a world where the Catholic Church is at a crossroads—trying to cling to its traditions while facing realities of the contemporary world.
The leadership baton that Pope Francis eventually will leave behind has both the history and promise of renewal. Regardless of whether his successor will be taking a new or parallel path, the world, and particularly the Church, will be watching closely.
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