Only Three Years Left to Limit Global Warming to 1.5°C, Scientists Warn.
By Mark Poynting, Climate Reporter, BBC News.
The Earth could exceed the critical 1.5°C global warming threshold within just three years if current carbon dioxide emissions persist, according to a stark warning from more than 60 leading climate scientists.
In their most up-to-date assessment of global warming, the scientists highlight that the world is quickly running out of time to meet the target set in the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement. Nearly 200 countries pledged then to limit global temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
However, continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels and deforestation is putting that goal in serious jeopardy. These activities have already intensified extreme weather events—such as the UK's record-breaking 40°C heatwave in July 2022—and accelerated sea-level rise, posing growing threats to coastal communities.
“Things are all moving in the wrong direction,” said Professor Piers Forster, lead author and director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds.
“We’re seeing unprecedented changes—accelerated heating of the Earth and faster sea-level rise—and we can directly trace these back to the extremely high level of emissions,” he added.
At the start of 2020, scientists estimated that the world had a remaining "carbon budget" of 500 billion tonnes of CO₂ to maintain a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C warming. By early 2025, that budget will have shrunk to just 130 billion tonnes—mainly due to continued record emissions and improved measurement techniques.
At the current rate of about 40 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions per year, the carbon budget could be depleted in roughly three years, which would lock the world into exceeding the 1.5°C target—though the actual crossing of that threshold would likely occur a few years later.
Although a single year of extreme temperatures does not count as a breach of the Paris Agreement, 2024’s record heat—reaching 1.36°C above pre-industrial levels—was mainly driven by human-caused climate change, the researchers say.
Currently, global temperatures are rising at about 0.27°C per decade, a rate faster than any period in the geological record. On this trajectory, the 1.5°C threshold could be reached around 2030.
While some argue that removing large amounts of CO₂ from the atmosphere could eventually reduce global temperatures, the scientists caution against overreliance on such unproven technologies.
“If we overshoot 1.5°C significantly, it's unlikely we’ll be able to fully reverse the damage just by removing CO₂,” warned Professor Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London.
Alarming Indicators
One of the most concerning statistics in the report is the rate at which heat is accumulating in the Earth’s climate system—a concept scientists call the “Earth’s energy imbalance.”
Over the past decade, the planet has been warming at more than twice the rate of the 1970s and 1980s, and about 25% faster than in the late 2000s and 2010s.
“That’s a very large and worrying number over such a short time,” said Dr. Matthew Palmer of the UK Met Office and University of Bristol.
Most of this heat—around 90%—is absorbed by the oceans, which leads to rising sea levels and disrupted marine ecosystems. In fact, the pace of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, increasing the flood risks for millions living in low-lying coastal areas.
A Small Sign of Hope
Despite the grim outlook, the report notes that the growth rate of global emissions may be slowing as cleaner technologies become more widely adopted. The authors stress that rapid and strict emissions reductions are now more critical than ever.
The Paris Agreement target was based on strong scientific evidence that the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming could mean substantially worse impacts. But that doesn't mean staying under 1.5°C is “safe” while anything above is “dangerous.”
“Every fraction of a degree of warming we can avoid matters,” said Prof. Rogelj.
“Reducing emissions in the next decade will help prevent more suffering, especially among the world’s poorest and most vulnerable communities, and make it easier for society to live sustainably,” he added.
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