Nigeria's oil and gas industry is witnessing a fresh surge of investor enthusiasm, with new upstream reforms paving the way for $18.2 billion in Field Development Plans set for 2025. Notably, crude oil losses have dropped to their lowest levels in over ten years. Gbenga Komolafe, the Chief Executive of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, shared these significant updates on Tuesday during the Africa Oil Week in Accra, Ghana.
In his presentation, titled Nigeria's Competitive Reform Agenda for Unlocking Potentials in Upstream Oil & Gas, Komolafe discussed how these reforms align with President Bola Tinubu's Renewed Hope Agenda and the Petroleum Industry Act of 2021. Together, they lay the foundation for improved governance, fiscal clarity, and better institutional alignment.
According to Komolafe, the commission has approved 28 new FDPs for 2025, which are expected to tap into 1.4 billion barrels of oil and 5.4 trillion cubic feet of gas. This initiative aims to increase production by an impressive 591,000 barrels of oil per day and 2.1 billion standard cubic feet of gas daily, inching Nigeria closer to its ambitious target of producing over three million barrels of crude oil each day.
Komolafe emphasized that these FDPs, backed by $18.2 billion in capital expenditure, reflect Nigeria's transformation into a highly dynamic and appealing destination for upstream investments globally. He also highlighted the commission’s achievements since its formation under the PIA, including the implementation of 24 transformative regulations, 19 of which have already been officially published.
A thorough Regulatory Action Plan has broken down barriers to entry, simplified licensing processes, and enhanced transparency in a sector that has historically faced uncertainty. Komolafe pointed to significant investment decisions as evidence of growing confidence among investors, such as the $5 billion Final Investment Decision for the Bonga North deep offshore project, the $500 million Ubeta Gas Project, and anticipated funding decisions for several other projects like HI NAG Development and Owowo Deep Offshore.
Additionally, President Tinubu has greenlit five major acquisition deals worth over $5 billion, providing new opportunities for local players to expand their influence in the industry. Komolafe stated that licensing rounds have seen a robust response thanks to these reforms. The 57 Petroleum Prospecting License awards in 2022, the Mini-Bid Round of the same year, and the 2024 Licensing Round all attracted significant interest, with 27 out of 31 blocks offered in 2024 successfully awarded.
Changes to signature bonus requirements and other measures were introduced to make it easier and more competitive for participants. Rig activity has surged, jumping from just eight rigs in 2021 to 43 as of September 2025, clearly indicating a renewed engagement from investors.
Alongside the growing investment, Nigeria has also made notable strides in reducing crude oil losses, a persistent challenge for Africa’s leading oil producer. NUPRC data shows that from January to July 2025, losses fell by 50.2%, totaling 2.04 million barrels, which averages out to about 9,600 barrels per day. This is the lowest level since 2009 when daily losses averaged 8,500 barrels.
The latest figures represent a significant improvement compared to the 4.1 million barrels lost in 2024 and a dramatic decline from the staggering 37.6 million barrels lost in 2021, when theft and sabotage were costing the country around 102,900 barrels per day. Komolafe credited this reduction to stricter regulations, enhanced monitoring, and collaborative security efforts initiated under the current administration.