A Malagasy Coup De'etat OR a West African Model Changement De Régime

The dawn of the 12^th day of October 2025 lit up another mutiny in Madagascar! An obscure colonel became outstanding, as the CAPSAT took over the government. He described the event that brought him out of obscurity as ‘a political transition’ and not a ‘coup d’etat.’ What’s the difference? Apple Podcasts and eBooks reveal all! (Follow Links to the Apple Store at the end).

Perhaps Colonel Randrianirina was right. Perhaps there was no violent seizure of power at all! What happened in Madagascar was not a coup d’état, it was ‘a Changement de Régime’. People demanded a change in government, and one was brought about.
In this instance, Colonel Randrianirina took up the responsibility of leading that change!

So, what exactly is this ‘Changement de Régime’ syndrome and not coup d’etat, that is rapidly sweeping through the governance systems of Africa?

“Changement de Régime” has become the defining wave of recent power transitions in French-speaking African countries. This wave has swept across the region and now threatens to spill into neighbouring Anglophone nations. These regime changes often appear to be quietly negotiated and initiated under the cover of night, indirectly fuelled by weak governance structures and failing economies marked by widespread corruption, poverty, and unemployment. It seems as if there is a silent, underground youth movement led by disillusioned but well-educated adults, It seems as if there is a silent, underground youth movement led by disillusioned but well-educated adults, who are increasingly rejecting a failing leadership.

The weapons in such contexts may entail mostly persistent, well-focused disagreements, civil unrest, and recurring quarrels at all levels of the government. Youth demonstrations and violent riots, combined with armed intimidations of a handful of brave and ambitious military personnel. The deed is done; the derangement and displacement of an incumbent government is achieved!

Author Nathaniel Adams, in his book, ‘The Tragedy of Madagascar’, observes that since the 2009 military coup, which replaced President Marc Ravalomanana with Andry Rajoelina, Madagascar has failed to make any meaningful progress, not just since the coup, but since independence itself.

There needs to be an uprooting of the notion of 'Changement De Regime' as being the only solution to failing economies in West Africa.

In 2022, Burkina Faso experienced two instances of what Colonel Randrianirina describes as “Changement de Régime” rather than “Coup d’état.” The events, occurring in January and September, involved mutinies that led to rapid changes in government. In July 2023, President Mohamed Bazoum of Niger was unceremoniously removed from power, with Abdourahamane Tchiani assuming control. Similarly, in Gabon, the August 2023 overthrow of President Ali Bongo Ondimba by Brice Oligui Nguema raised questions: was this another changement de Régime? This cycle of political upheaval hasn’t left Burkina Faso and Mali unscathed.

Although the underlying forces driving the youth’s clamour for government change may not always be visible on the surface, the signs are clear and can be addressed. Given the many challenges facing Madagascar, one crucial question arises:

Does the military have the expertise and experience necessary to manage and improve a nation's economy today?

In pursuit of peaceful engagement with marginalized groups, our West African leaders must be intensely persistent and swift to dialogue with these aggrieved groups. A foundation for lasting political stability is creating opportunities for popular engagement, according to author Richard R. Marcus in his book ‘The Politics of Institutional Failure in Madagascar's Third Republic’. As opposed to so-called ‘Changement de Regime’ syndrome, which is usually accompanied by the fear of cocking guns, gunfire, and ominous displays of mutinous military colours, this is a deliberately more acceptable alternative.

Get these eBooks and Podcasts from the Apple Store now! Follow Links:

Nathaniel A. (2022). The Tragedy of Madagascar.

Link: https://apple.co/4ose4AS

Richard R. M. (2016). The Politics of Institutional Failure in Madagascar's Third Republic. Link: https://apple.co/4nZMg7b

Madagascar Coup: Colonel Takes Control

Podcast Episode ∙ Daily News ∙ 2025 ∙ 2 minutes, 13 seconds

Link: https://apple.co/46Y1J1E

Madagascar: Youth Rejects Dialogue, Deepening Political Crisis

Podcast Episode ∙ Daily News ∙ 2025 ∙ 1 minute, 47 seconds

Link: https://apple.co/47kYwbj

Madagascar

Podcast Episode ∙ History ∙ 2025 ∙ 16 minutes, 5 seconds