After first-round voting on Sunday, France is set for a rerun of the 2017 presidential election run-off, with centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right contender Marine Le Pen both going to the final. However, the fight for 2022 has so far been anything from a repeat of Macron's victory five years ago. And the ultimate result on April 24, when all ballots are tabulated, is all the more unpredictable as a result.
According to Ipsos/Sopra Steria projections released late Sunday evening, Macron won 27.6 percent of the vote in the first round, ahead of Le Pen's 23 percent. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a far-left contender, received 22.2 percent of the vote after a late surge and an appeal for lefties to vote tactically.
The rest of the field ended in single digits, with conservative pundit-turned-politician Éric Zemmour leading the way with 7.2 percent. The major parties who had exchanged tenancies at the Élysée Palace for decades before Macron came to power all lost badly; Les Républicains candidate Valérie Pécresse came in fourth place with 4.8 percent, while Socialist candidate Anne Hidalgo came in a humiliating tenth place with 1.7 percent.
The voter turnout was very low. In the first round, 26 percent of registered voters chose to stay at home, up four points from 2017 and uncomfortably near to the record of 28.4 percent set in 2002.
On the surface, the findings appear to be a carbon copy of poll results dating back years, implying a repeat of the 2017 final. Macron defeated Le Pen back then, as he does again. Indeed, both Macron and Le Pen improved on their ratings from five years ago on Sunday, with Macron earning over two points and Le Pen gaining nearly three. However, this race has been nothing more than a march to a predetermined conclusion. Macron's thunderous first-round victory is misleading; the second round, which takes place in two weeks, is still up in the air.