The Ministry of Finance has indicated that its debt sustainability analysis (DSA) and GDP predictions for 2022 would be updated to reflect good economic developments in 2021.
The adjustment, which will also include medium-term economic estimates, is based on the Ghana Statistical Service's (GSS) official provisional fourth quarter and overall 2021 annual GDP figures announced on April 20, 2022.
According to the GSS, real GDP increased by 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to 4.3 percent growth in the same quarter of 2020.
Similarly, non-oil real GDP grew 7.6% in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to 5.7 percent in the previous quarter.
The GSS also said that the preliminary real GDP growth for 2021 was 5.4 percent, above the 4.4 percent anticipated outturn by 1 percentage point, and the SSA average growth by 0.9 percentage point on an annual basis.
"This is obvious evidence that the economy is on the mend following the COVID-19 epidemic, which resulted in a reduced 2020 growth rate of barely 0.5 percent."
"The rate of debt buildup is slowing, and fiscal expansion is slowing, with Ghana on course to return to the Fiscal Responsibility Act deficit level of 5% of GDP by 2024," according to a statement published by the ministry of finance on Tuesday.
Non-oil real GDP increased from 1.0 percent in 2020 to 6.9 percent in 2021, above the objective of 5.9 percent for the period, according to GSS data.
The nominal GDP for 2021 was anticipated to be GH459,130.9 million, up from GH391,940.7 million in 2020. This is approximately GH18 billion more than the projected outturn of GH440,869.4 million for the year. Non-oil nominal GDP is expected to reach GH437,975.2 million in 2021, up from GH378,147.9 million in 2020.
The ministry did say, however, that a higher-than-expected GDP result for 2021 will mean that all economic indicators reported as a ratio of GDP will be revised to reflect the new GDP data.
"These ratios include the debt-to-GDP ratio, which is a critical indicator of debt sustainability, as well as the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio and the revenue-to-GDP ratio. The latest GDP statistics has ramifications for the nominal GDP objective of 2022.
and the growth rate, which is based on revised GDP statistics for 2021," according to the statement.
The fiscal deficit, which includes energy and the financial sector, is expected to fall from 15.0 percent to 14.7 percent of GDP in 2020, according to the report. The fiscal deficit for 2021 has also decreased from 11.7 percent to 11.4 percent.
"At the end of 2016, Ghana's public debt stock, represented as a percentage of GDP, was at 76.6 percent of GDP."
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