Up to nine Premier League teams might compete in the Champions League, Europa League, or Europa Conference League next season, but how high could your team finish... and how low could they fall?Manchester City and Liverpool are battling for the Premier League crown, but where do you think your team will finish this season?
Clubs have two to five games left to decide their fate, however 19 of the 20 clubs are still in contention for the title, Champions League, Europa League, or Europa Conference League qualifying, or to avoid relegation.
Ben Mayhew, a data whiz, evaluated each club's range of probable final league places and discovered that only Norwich have anything to play for other than pride for the rest of the season.Chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, and Manchester United are all vying to join title rivals Manchester City and Liverpool in the top four, with Spurs and United risking finishing eighth and missing out on Europe next season.
With seventh place being the lowest position to potentially give a European berth, all teams from fifth through 13th-placed Aston Villa have a chance to qualify for Europe if permutations play out across competitions.Norwich was relegated on Saturday following a 2-0 loss to Villa and other results went against them, although every team above the Canaries up to ninth-placed Brighton could theoretically end in the relegation zone.
Watford have been written off in the survival race, but the Hornets could still finish 16th. Meanwhile, Everton, Leeds, and Burnley are vying for the final relegation spot, but all three could still finish in the top half.
What are the possibilities?
Mayhew has also assessed the odds of each club's likely final rankings by simulating every possible result from the remaining games.According to the data, Manchester City has a 69 percent chance of maintaining their Premier League title, while Liverpool has a nearly equal chance of finishing second.
Chelsea has a 93 percent likelihood of finishing third, with Arsenal pipping Tottenham to the final Champions League berth with a 74 percent chance, and Manchester United has a stunning 94 percent chance of finishing sixth.
How does it work?
An expected goals model was used to rank each club's attacking and defensive strength, which measures the quality of opportunities they produce and allow.The rest of the season was then simulated 10,000 times to determine the chance of each club finishing in each league place.
Things become significantly less predictable farther down the table, between Brighton and Southampton, with very even margins between ninth and 15th.Watford seems likely to be relegated to the Championship, but the race for the final relegation slot is heating up, with Leeds (46%) the favorite to finish 18th, followed by Everton (31%), and Burnley (31%). (23 per cent).
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