Russia is the source of less than 1% of the foreign direct investment into Africa. Substantively, then, Russia brings little to the continent. But the fact that Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is making a high-profile trip to Africa in the throes of Russia's war on Ukraine reveals how much Russia needs Africa.
A priority for Lavrov's trip to Egypt, the Republic of the Congo, Uganda, and Ethiopia is to show that Russia is not isolated internationally, despite expansive western sanctions. The objective is to portray Russia as an unencumbered Great Power that maintains allies around the globe with whom it can conduct business as usual.
Russia is also vying to normalize an international order where might makes right. And democracy and respect for human rights are optional.
Lavrov's Africa trip is significant, accordingly, for Russia's geostrategic posturing. Russian messaging recasts Russia's imperialistic land grab in Ukraine as a broader East-West ideological struggle. To the extent that Moscow succeeds in this framing, few African countries will criticize it.
This, in part, explains why 25 of Africa's 54 states abstained or did not vote to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine during the UN General Assembly resolution ES-11/1 in March. This ambivalent response was in stark contrast to the overwhelming condemnation of Russia's aggression from every other region of the world.
Lavrov can also be expected to portray the recent Ukrainian-Russian deal to unblock more than 20 million metric tonnes of Ukrainian grain for export as a humanitarian gesture by Moscow. This, even though it was Russia's invasion and blockade of Ukrainian ports that have prevented the grain from reaching international markets. Russia's bombing of the Ukrainian port of Odesa the day after the agreement was signed suggests that Moscow will continue to try to weaponize the food crisis. All while blaming the west.
Egypt and Ethiopia – key countries on Lavrov's itinerary – have been particularly hard hit by this disruption in the food supply. The Russian blockade has caused global grain prices to double this year, creating intense political and social strains throughout Africa.
Focusing on ideological themes helps obscure how modest Russia's official economic and diplomatic investments in Africa are.
This begs the question of what African leaders gain from hosting Lavrov at a time when Russia is under severe criticism for its unprovoked aggression and the destabilization of global food, fuel, and fertilizer markets. The short answer is political support. Russia's expanding influence in Africa in recent years is mostly a result of Moscow's use of unofficial means — deploying mercenaries, disinformation campaigns, arms for resources deals, and trafficking of precious metals. These low-cost, high-impact tools are typically employed in support of isolated African leaders with dubious legitimacy. Russian backing of beleaguered leaders in the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, and Sudan have been vital to keeping these actors in power.
Russia's asymmetric approach to gaining influence in Africa is also notable in that these “partnerships” are with the individual leaders Moscow is propping up – and not with the broader public. It's about elite co-option more than traditional bilateral cooperation.
Read more: Ukraine war: a fresh warning that Africa needs to be vigilant against Russia's destabilizing influence
Understanding these motivations brings Lavrov's trip and itinerary into sharper focus.
Egypt's President Abdel al Sisi is a key ally in Russia's efforts to install a proxy government in Libya. This would enable Russia to establish an enduring naval presence in the southern Mediterranean and tap Libyan oil reserves. Sisi has also been a Russian partner in attempting to derail the democratic transitions in Sudan and Tunisia.
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