The Champions League group stages are coming to an end (watch all the action only on Paramount+). Twelve of the sixteen knockout round spots have been claimed, but there is still plenty at stake for teams still looking to qualify as well as those looking to make history. Here are three major storylines to look out for:
Tottenham defeats Marseille.
White Hart Lane is in disarray. Even if Antonio Conte's team wins on Saturday, Tottenham should not need a last-minute cavalry charge to overcome a two-goal deficit to Bournemouth.This was a team with realistic hopes of being the best of the rest in 2022-23; while the table shows them in a creditable third place, averaging two points per game, everything appears to have been done through treacle in this slog of an early season. The same is true in the Champions League, where Spurs appear to be determined to make a favorable group far more difficult than necessary.
The major issue is obvious, albeit difficult to resolve. They simply do not generate enough opportunities from open play. Conte's most obvious solution is for Dejan Kulusevski, who has been out with a thigh injury for the last month, to be fit for every game on their brutal schedule.Alternatives could be that 33-year-old Ivan Perisic, who impressed off the bench against Bournemouth, quickly adapts to the Premier League's pace, or that the front two start creating more for each other. Heung-min This season, Son has averaged 0.24 expected goals assisted (xAG) in the Premier League, but set pieces have accounted for well over a third of his shot-creating actions. Meanwhile, Harry Kane's creative numbers have dipped, possibly as a result of Son's struggles with form. Their instinctive relationship was at the heart of Tottenham's best form in recent years, and the bigger picture question that few in north London want to answer is what happens when one of these two titanic figures falls off?
That is something Spurs will hope for in the future. For the time being, there's a Champions League group to escape and a trip to the Stade Velodrome that could suit Tottenham. Marseille have been one of the most entertaining teams to watch this season, for better or worse. This is undoubtedly a team that will put Spurs to the test. If nothing else, OM have a plethora of players in their squad, including Matteo Guendouzi, Nuno Tavares, and Alexis Sanchez, for whom the sight of the other north London team should be like a red rag to a bull. They have also excelled defensively, conceding fewer expected goals (xG) than anyone other than Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool, and Chelsea.Though they have remained in this competition due to their defense, this team has a gloriously chaotic energy, one that can throw a clown car full of defensive errors at Frankfurt one week before ripping an impressive Sporting to shreds the next. With a win required to advance to the knockout rounds, Igor Tudor's team will have to throw caution to the wind, likely pushing upfield against an already strong defensive line.There are gaps to be exploited, as Sporting have already demonstrated in this competition, in a match they started superbly before goalkeeper Antonio Adan blew things up. This move in the buildup to Francisco Trincao's opener could have come straight out of the Kane-Son playbook.They had conceded a strikingly similar goal against Rennes just a few days before. Last weekend, they were undone twice by crosses against Strasbourg and had at least one tense moment from a corner, which is very much Spurs' offensive weapon of the moment. For the most part, Marseille have looked solid defending those dead balls, though Gianni Vio, Tottenham's set piece coach, will have noticed the problems PSG caused when they fired deliveries at the near post. Spurs have scored the most goals from set pieces in the Premier League this season, with five, while Marseille are firmly in midtable in Ligue 1 in terms of the number of shots they allow off dead balls.So, who gets the remaining four spots?
As I mentioned earlier, I believe Tottenham will take one of the two available places in Group D. Expect Sporting to follow them; despite being inconsistent, the Portuguese side has shown a ceiling far higher than their opponents, as evidenced by a 3-0 win over Eintracht Frankfurt on the first matchday.The race for second place behind Chelsea is intriguing. On paper, one might assume that the institutional know-how and experience required to escape the group stage would be on AC Milan's side, but despite the departure of some key cast members, Salzburg are the experienced pros when it comes to getting across the group stage line, as they did last season. Noah Okafor and Junior Adamu have been consistent, but I still think Milan will win, possibly with a draw to maintain their one-point lead in second place.Shakhtar Donetsk's match against RB Leipzig in Group F is a must-win. They may well do just that. After all, while the Bundesliga team is vastly improved from the one that was thrashed on the opening day, the players are still the same. In a match full of talented forwards, Mykhailo Mudryk may be the most consistent game winner in this competition.
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