Arsenal are assured of a place in next season's Champions League group phase but they could be handed a nightmare draw if they won't win the Premier League trophy
Beyond the agony of losing 4-1 to Manchester City, there was at least some good news for Arsenal on Wednesday night in that they will be playing Champions League football next season.
Thanks to Nottingham Forest coming from behind to beat Brighton and Hove Albion it means for the first time since the 2015/16 campaign the Gunners are assured of a top-four finish - which in truth was the target all the way back in August before emerging as Premier League title contenders.
However, based on their recent performances in European competitions and with the way the draw works for the Champions League group stage, Arsenal's task of reaching the knockout phase could be made a lot harder if they're unable to wrestle the Premier League trophy from Manchester City.
As per UEFA.com, how the Champions League draw is conducted is as follows: 'The teams will be split into four seeding pots. Pot 1 will consist of the holders, the UEFA Europa League winners and the champions of the six highest-ranked nations who did not qualify via one of the 2022/23 continental titles; Pots 2 to 4 will be determined by the club coefficient rankings.'
Currently, because Arsenal are Premier League leaders, if this is still the case after May 28 then as champions of England - which is one of the six highest-ranked nations - they will be in Pot 1 on their return to Europe's top table following a six-year absence from the competition.
Although, with the odds heavily stacked against the Gunners with regard to holding onto top spot, finishing behind Man City - whether that be second, third or fourth - means they won't be in Pot 1 and there's no guarantee they'll be in Pot 2 either based on their coefficient ranking.
Not being in any European competition last season and suffering elimination in the Europa League round of 16 stage at the hands of Sporting CP via a penalty shootout this term could come back to haunt Mikel Arteta's side as they are ranked 23rd in the aforementioned coefficient table.
That is below Man City, Bayern Munich, Chelsea, Liverpool, Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester United, Juventus, Barcelona, AS Roma, Internazionale, Ajax, Borussia Dortmund, Sevilla, Atletico Madrid, RB Leipzig, Benfica, Villarreal, Napoli, Porto, Tottenham Hotspur and Eintracht Frankfurt.
Of those 22 teams, only Chelsea definitely won't be playing Champions League football next season as a Premier League top-four finish it out of reach. But the rest have a chance either through their league finish or winning the Europa League or entering the competition as the defending champions.
And should 16 of those aforementioned teams qualify then it means Arsenal will be in Pot 3 which sets up the possibility of them being drawn into the 'Group of Death' alongside Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, for example.
This nightmare scenario is possible if Bayern retain the Bundesliga trophy, which is by no means a guarantee with Dortmund currently top, thus going into Pot 1 and Real Madrid do not claim their 15th Champions League title thus being placed in Pot 2 as Barcelona are the likely La Liga champions.
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