Prof. Smart Sarpong, a Senior Researcher at Kumasi Technical University, has presented findings from his latest survey on the 2024 presidential election. His analysis, shared during Peace FM’s Kokrokoo discussion panel, examines the regional preferences for the two main contenders: John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
Contrary to claims that Mahama leads in 12 regions, Prof. Sarpong’s data indicates that Mahama is ahead in nine regions, while Bawumia is leading in seven. He labeled his research the “Prove Me Wrong” survey, encouraging debate on his methodology and findings.
The regions favoring Mahama include Greater Accra, Volta, Oti, Western North, Upper West, Upper East, Northern, Savannah, and Bono East. On the other hand, Bawumia reportedly holds the lead in the Ashanti, Western, Bono, Ahafo, Central, Eastern, and North East regions.
Prof. Sarpong emphasized that while the number of regions leading for each candidate is significant, the actual voter turnout and margin of victory in these regions will determine the overall winner on December 7. "The extent of gains made by the NPP in their strongholds and the NDC in theirs will be crucial," he noted.
He also offered a cautionary note to fellow researchers, urging them to apply advanced statistical methods to analyze data accurately before drawing conclusions. "Surveys should go beyond basic samples. Proper statistical tools, such as inferential analysis, are essential to understand the broader implications," he advised.
This survey sheds light on the critical role regional dynamics play in Ghana’s elections. While the NPP traditionally dominates the Ashanti and Eastern regions, and the NDC holds strong influence in the Volta and Upper East regions, emerging trends in swing regions such as Greater Accra and Central could significantly influence the outcome.
The findings reflect a keenly contested election, with both parties vying to maximize their regional advantages while making inroads into their opponent's territories. As campaigns intensify, voter turnout, undecided voters, and regional shifts will remain pivotal in determining who emerges victorious.
Prof. Sarpong’s analysis provides a scientific perspective on the electoral landscape, emphasizing the importance of data-driven strategies for political success.
blogpay
Total Comments: 0