With less than two weeks to Ghana’s December 7 general elections, Global InfoAnalytics has forecasted a win for John Dramani Mahama, flagbearer of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), in the presidential race. According to the research firm’s latest projections, Mahama is expected to secure 52.2% of the vote, positioning him ahead of his main rival, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), who is anticipated to garner 41.4%.
The analysis, released on November 29, also predicts other candidates, including Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako, to receive 2.5% and 3.0% of the votes, respectively, with the remaining 0.9% split among minor candidates. The report, which comes with a margin of error of ±1.8%, estimates voter turnout at 77.6%.
Regional Dynamics Favor Mahama
The poll suggests that Mahama will dominate in 10 regions, including key areas such as Greater Accra, Central, Volta, and Northern regions. Meanwhile, Dr. Bawumia is projected to win in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions. These trends highlight the significance of regional strongholds and their influence on the overall election outcome.
NDC Poised for Parliamentary Majority
In addition to the presidential projections, the NDC is forecasted to secure a commanding lead in the parliamentary elections, with an estimated 150 seats. The NPP is predicted to win 99 seats, while one seat is likely to go to an independent candidate. However, the results in 29 constituencies remain too close to call.
This projection points to a potential shift in parliamentary representation, with the NDC consolidating gains in its strongholds while making inroads into traditionally NPP-dominated areas.
Voter Concerns Shape Preferences
The report emphasizes that voter preferences are being shaped by pressing issues such as economic challenges, job creation, and public service delivery. These factors appear to have bolstered Mahama’s appeal among undecided voters and those dissatisfied with the current administration.
Contrasting Predictions
The Global InfoAnalytics findings contrast sharply with a recent survey by Professor Smart Sarpong of Kumasi Technical University, which placed Dr. Bawumia ahead with 49.1% of the vote, compared to Mahama’s 45.8%. These differing projections underscore the fluid nature of voter sentiment in the lead-up to the elections.
While the Global InfoAnalytics poll reflects a base-case scenario, it also includes alternative models where Mahama’s support could range between 50.4% and 54.1%, depending on voter turnout and the decisions of undecided voters.
This report highlights the high stakes of the 2024 elections, which will determine Ghana’s political and economic trajectory for years to come.
(Source: Global InfoAnalytics via MyjoyOnline.com)
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